Outlook: Green Energy Expansion

Tajikistan

The hydropower battery of Central Asia. Accelerating the Rogun mega-project and reinforcing southern border security with regional partners.

GDP Growth '25

~7.4%

Rogun Status

>50% Done

Remittances

49% GDP

Security

CSTO Patrols

COORDS: 38.8610° N, 71.2761° E DATA SOURCE: WORLD BANK / ADB '25

Strategic Vectors 2025

Core drivers of energy sovereignty and border stability.

Rogun HPP

Construction passed 50% completion. Unit 3 scheduled for late 2025 activation. $500M additional financing secured from AIIB.

Capacity: 3.7GW Goal

Southern Frontier

CSTO border reinforcement program active (2025-2030). New joint patrols and equipment upgrades to counter Afghan-based risks.

Risk: Moderate

Energy Export

CASA-1000 infrastructure nearing operational readiness. Technical codes approved in Dushanbe, preparing for Pakistan exports.

Corridor: South Asia

Resilient Growth

7.4% GDP growth projected. Remittances remain a critical lifeline (49% of GDP), despite global volatility.

Driver: Remittances
Political & Industrial Core

Dushanbe & The West

The capital region focuses on industrial modernization and digital transformation. TALCO (aluminum) and the nearby Rogun site drive the industrial output of the nation.

SECTOR: WEST / HISSAR
SECTOR: EAST / GBAO
Strategic Frontier

Pamir & Border Zones

The Gorno-Badakhshan (GBAO) region remains strategically vital due to the long, porous border with Afghanistan. Infrastructure improvements aim to integrate this remote highland into the national grid.

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Deep Dive Intelligence

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